Estimates of the magnitudes of major marine mass extinctions in earth history

• Stanley, Steven M.

Abstract

This paper shows that background extinction definitely preceded mass extinctions; introduces a mathematical method for estimating the amount of this background extinction and, by subtracting it from total extinction, correcting estimates of losses in mass extinctions; presents a method for estimating the amount of erroneous backward smearing of extinctions from mass extinction intervals; and introduces a method for calculating species losses in a mass extinction that takes into account clustering of losses. It concludes that the great terminal Permian crisis eliminated only about 81% of marine species, not the frequently quoted 90-96%. Life did not almost disappear at the end of the Permian, as has often been asserted.