Salmond to push ahead with referendum Bill [proxy]

Angus Macleod, Scottish Political Editor

The Nationalist government in Scotland yesterday made clear its intention to bring forward legislation to hold a referendum on independence towards the end of 2010, claiming that devolution has become “a glass ceiling” for the country.

The move, which represents a watershed in the post-war constitutional arguments about Scotland’s place in the UK, would see details of the referendum — including the question to be asked — published on January 25 next year with the actual vote planned for around November 30, St Andrew’s Day.

However, the ambitions of Alex Salmond, the First Minister, and his minority government to break up the UK look certain to have to be put on hold because all three Unionist parties, who have a clear majority of MSPs, will block the move and the Bill looks certain to fall at its first legislative hurdle.

Mr Salmond will, though, use his opponents’ refusal to contemplate a referendum to paint Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, as denying the Scottish people a vote on their constitutional future.

Mr Salmond, who has said previously that Scotland would be independent by 2017, confirmed his referendum plan when he published the Scottish government’s legislative programme for the coming year.

The SNP still remains ahead in opinion polls in Scotland although their popularity has been dented by the furore over the decision to release the Lockerbie bomber.

But the Nationalists’ defining policy of independence does not attract as much support with successive opinion polls showing that only around one-third of Scots back leaving the UK. A poll last week at the height of the Lockerbie affair had dipped below the 30-point mark.

The Unionist parties support the alternative of giving the Scottish Parliament more financial powers, short of full independence — a plan outlined in the recent Calman Commission report on Scotland’s constitutional future.

Mr Salmond yesterday repeated an earlier hint that he might be willing to include this option in a multi-question plebiscite. However, that concession would still not be enough to attract Unionist support for his Bill.

If the Bill, as expected, falls, Mr Salmond will seek to use the expected victory of the Conservatives at next year’s UK general election as another argument for independence.

If they win, the Tories will come to power with only a handful of MPs from Scotland and the SNP will claim that Scotland is being governed by a party which has no mandate from the Scots — a ‘democratic deficit’ argument first rehearsed by Labour during the devolution debates of the 1990s.

Some elements in the Conservative Party, including Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, the former Scottish Secretary, believe David Cameron should call Mr Salmond’s bluff and support his call for a referendum, because, they say, the SNP would lose it.

However, there is no sign of Mr Cameron or the Scottish party leadership supporting this stance. Mr Salmond has said a referendum on independence would be “a once in a generation” event and would not become a Quebec-style ‘neverendum’.

Mr Salmond told the Scottish Parliament yesterday that the glass ceiling of devolution threatened to stall the country’s progress.

He added: “This government was elected with a popular mandate to put the question of Scotland’s future to the vote in a referendum. It is time for the people of Scotland to have their say. Not everyone will agree with our vision for the future, we know that.

“But the people of Scotland must be heard. This Parliament should not stand in their way — let the people speak.”

Iain Gray, the Labour leader at Holyrood, described the SNP’s planned bill as “a flagship waiting to be scuttled”. He stated: “During a time of economic uncertainty the SNP should make jobs a priority not constitutional upheaval.”

Mr Gray’s predecessor, Wendy Alexander, asked about a referendum last year, urging Mr Salmond to “bring it on”. Gordon Brown immediately distanced himself from that stance and after Ms Alexander later resigned in a row over a leadership campaign donation, her call was ditched by the party.

Tavish Scott, the Scottish Liberal democrat leader said that the referendum was about the SNP while the recession and jobs was about Scotland. “We will not support the government when the SNP’s internal party politics are more important than the country,” he added.

Among other measures announceed by Mr Salmond yesterday was an Alcohol Misuse Bill, which will include minimum pricing for alcoholic drinks, a move which has already attracted vehement criticism from the drinks and retail industry. However, there have been indications that at least one of the Opposition parties at Holyrood will support it.

Mr Salmond told MSPs: “Scotland’s relationship with alcohol needs to be rebalanced.”

Alcohol misuse is estimated to cost Scotland at least £2.25 billion a year in extra services and lost productivity — £500 for every Scottish adult.

Alcohol-related deaths have doubled in the past 15 years and one in 20 deaths in Scotland are attributable to alcohol abuse.